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days","value":8.75,"move":0.0,"status":"still","readings":17},{"id":"tbill","label":"91-day bill","lagMonths":1,"why":"The market's first opinion on policy","value":8.77,"move":0.0,"status":"still","readings":17},{"id":"lending","label":"Lending rate","lagMonths":5,"why":"Banks reprice slowly and downward last","value":14.39,"move":0.0,"status":"still","readings":17},{"id":"gdp","label":"GDP growth","lagMonths":11,"why":"Activity follows the cost of borrowing, at a long remove","value":5.3,"move":0.0,"status":"still","readings":17}],"breaks":[{"name":"Bank margin over policy","value":5.64,"unit":"pp","normalLo":3.5,"normalHi":5.5,"state":"high","reading":"Banks are holding spreads wide while policy eases. Transmission is incomplete, so more of the cut has yet to reach borrowers \u2014 and more of the fall in lending rates is still to come.","why":"Average lending rate less the Central Bank Rate.","basis":"judgement","n":17,"basisNote":"Range read off published Kenyan history, not yet computed. 17 of 24 readings logged."},{"name":"91-day over policy","value":0.02,"unit":"pp","normalLo":-1.0,"normalHi":0.75,"state":"normal","reading":"Inside its usual range.","why":"91-day bill less the Central Bank Rate.","basis":"judgement","n":17,"basisNote":"Range read off published Kenyan history, not yet computed. 17 of 24 readings logged."},{"name":"Sovereign spread","value":8.43,"unit":"pp","normalLo":7.0,"normalHi":11.0,"state":"normal","reading":"Inside its usual range.","why":"Kenya 10-year less the US 10-year.","basis":"judgement","n":17,"basisNote":"Range read off published Kenyan history, not yet computed. 17 of 24 readings logged."},{"name":"Real deposit rate","value":0.33,"unit":"pp","normalLo":-1.0,"normalHi":2.0,"state":"normal","reading":"Inside its usual range.","why":"Average deposit rate less headline inflation.","basis":"judgement","n":17,"basisNote":"Range read off published Kenyan history, not yet computed. 17 of 24 readings logged."},{"name":"Market cap to GDP","value":23.93,"unit":"%","normalLo":15.0,"normalHi":30.0,"state":"normal","reading":"Inside its usual range.","why":"NSE market capitalisation as a share of GDP.","basis":"judgement","n":17,"basisNote":"Range read off published Kenyan history, not yet computed. 17 of 24 readings logged."},{"name":"Overnight against policy","value":0.0,"unit":"pp","normalLo":-0.5,"normalHi":0.5,"state":"normal","reading":"Inside its usual range.","why":"KESONIA less the Central Bank Rate.","basis":"judgement","n":17,"basisNote":"Range read off published Kenyan history, not yet computed. 17 of 24 readings logged."}],"call":"Real yields are positive: 7 of 10 instruments beat inflation after tax. 10-year bond leads at +5.28% real. 3 lose purchasing power, worst being cash at -6.60%. Holding still in the chain: policy rate, overnight money, 91-day bill, lending rate, gdp growth \u2014 that is the part not yet priced. Outside their usual range: bank margin over policy at 5.64pp.","disagreements":[],"carried":[{"id":"debtserv","label":"Debt service to revenue","ageDays":17,"stale":false},{"id":"world_gdp","label":"World growth","ageDays":1,"stale":false},{"id":"ssa_gdp","label":"Sub-Saharan Africa growth","ageDays":1,"stale":false}],"sourcesLive":["_te_dates","cbk","cbkbills","fred","manual","nse","sbills","sbonds","serrari","te"],"cbkDates":{"cbr":"11/08/2026","kesonia":"07/09/2026","discount":"11/08/2026","tbill":"07/09/2026","repo":"15/10/2025","inflation":"August,2026","lending":"July,2026","savings":"July,2026","deposit":"July,2026"},"briefing":"KENYA PULSE \u2014 2026-09-08\n\nPolicy    CBR 8.75%, KESONIA 8.7518%, 91-day 8.7687%\nPrices    inflation 6.6%\nBanking   lending 14.39%, deposit 6.93%, NPLs 14.6%\nExternal  KES/USD 129.43, reserves 12.394$bn\nMarkets   NASI 250.93, cap 4211.05 KES bn\nFiscal    debt 69.9% of GDP\nGlobal    Fed 3.63%, US 10yr 4.77%, SSA 4.3%\n\nBest real return after tax: 10-year bond +5.28%, Infrastructure bond +5.07%, Top-quartile MMF +2.52%\nOff their range: Bank margin over policy 5.64pp\n\nReal yields are positive: 7 of 10 instruments beat inflation after tax. 10-year bond leads at +5.28% real. 3 lose purchasing power, worst being cash at -6.60%. Holding still in the chain: policy rate, overnight money, 91-day bill, lending rate, gdp growth \u2014 that is the part not yet priced. Outside their usual range: bank margin over policy at 5.64pp.","runSeconds":20.4}